{"predictions":[{"kind":"discharge_onset","statement":"Warm water volume has turned: 30-day slope -0.096 against +0.075 over 60 days, with Nino 3.4 (90-day mean) at +2.18 C. In the recharge oscillator, discharge onset at a mature warm peak leads the surface peak by two to three seasons, so Nino 3.4 should peak on or before 2027-04-17 and be below its value at issue by 300 days.","params":{"slope_30d":-0.09580912124583892,"slope_60d":0.07525923867742353,"nino34_run_at_issue":2.1783,"peak_by":"2027-04-17","below_issue_value_by":300},"verify_after":"2027-07-16","falsified_if":"Nino 3.4 (90-day mean) is still rising after the peak_by date, or exceeds its value at issue on the verification date, or the 30-day WWV slope returns above +0.05 for 60 consecutive days before peak_by","data_through":"2026-09-05","issued":"2026-09-19","id":"49b80fb95a1c","provenance":{"commit":"60e8ab2a0cf91067d1d0d52540c9d2e6aae9fe56","dirty":true},"outcome":null,"open":true},{"kind":"centroid_migration","statement":"The heating centroid is at 210 E, east of a Modoki position but short of the 230-250 E canonical eastern-Pacific one, while coastal OLR (270-280 E) is -1.6 W/m2 -- near normal over water at extreme SST. The ocean is in an EP configuration the atmosphere has not yet joined. If the centroid passes 230 E, coastal convection should follow: OLR at 270-280 E below -15 W/m2 within 30 days of that crossing.","params":{"centroid_e":209.93500033914924,"coastal_olr":-1.5635513785972515,"trigger_centroid_e":230,"response_olr":-15,"response_within_days":30},"verify_after":"2027-01-17","falsified_if":"the centroid passes 230 E and coastal OLR (270-280 E) does not fall below -15 W/m2 within the following 30 days","data_through":"2026-09-05","issued":"2026-09-19","id":"ba10395eb50b","provenance":{"commit":"60e8ab2a0cf91067d1d0d52540c9d2e6aae9fe56","dirty":true},"outcome":null,"open":true}],"scorecard":{"open":2},"note":"Each prediction records its falsification condition at issue time and is graded only after its horizon passes. Wrong calls are kept."}