Today's bulletin
The full run, as the pipeline writes it — every source, every index with its baseline, and whatever failed
# ENSO daily bulletin - 2026-11-04 11:39 UTC
Latest observation: 2026-11-02
Nino 3.4 +3.36 C (daily)
Nino 3 +4.49 C
Nino 4 +1.51 C
Nino 1+2 +5.80 C
Nino 3 - Nino 4 +2.98 C (east-Pacific leaning)
90-day running mean +2.99 C (ONI proxy -> very strong El Nino)
change over 1 week: -0.13 C
change over 1 month: +0.07 C
Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI, 2026-11-02):
DMI +0.74 K -> positive IOD 30-day mean +0.74 K
west box +1.08 K, east box +0.34 K
a daily proxy for a monthly published index; quote BoM or NOAA
Subsurface (recharge state):
mean 20 C isotherm depth 144.4 m (west 144.9, east 143.8)
warm water volume 27.62 x1e14 m3 (anom +1.55, short baseline)
thermocline contrast 1.1 m (west - east; climatology 80-100 m)
vs record mean -11.6 m (short baseline)
volume tilt (west - east) +1.11 x1e14 m3 (+1.73 of it is box-width geometry, leaving -0.62)
Atlantic genesis windows (ERA5 2026-10-27, 7-day means, about 6 days behind today):
box VI 7d shear SST state
ATL_CARIB 0.098 -0.076 16.4 29.5C closed (falling)
ATL_GOM 0.232 +0.122 25.3 27.9C closed (rising)
ATL_MDR 0.156 -0.007 22.8 28.9C closed (falling)
ENP 0.141 +0.062 16.8 28.9C closed (rising)
WNP 0.119 +0.015 13.8 29.1C closed (rising)
thresholds and measured skill (IBTrACS 1991-2020, in-sample):
ATL_CARIB opens below 0.0750 POD 0.57 FAR 0.67 open 29% of season genesis 1.96x more likely inside
ATL_GOM opens below 0.0600 POD 0.56 FAR 0.53 open 29% of season genesis 1.94x more likely inside
ATL_MDR opens below 0.0925 POD 0.64 FAR 0.38 open 29% of season genesis 2.21x more likely inside
ENP opens below 0.0650 POD 0.47 FAR 0.09 open 29% of season genesis 1.60x more likely inside
WNP opens below 0.0525 POD 0.37 FAR 0.35 open 30% of season genesis 1.25x more likely inside -- LOW SKILL
WNP caveat: lift 1.25: the open window carries only a quarter more genesis risk than the west Pacific season as a whole
shear anomaly baseline: 1991-2020 (20+ years/day)
Relative index, daily proxy (ERA of RONI, 2026-11-02):
Nino 3.4 +3.36 C minus tropical mean +1.90 C = +1.46 C
scaled to RONI: +2.04 C 90-day mean +2.13 C
scale 1.395 +/- 0.056 fitted on 14 months -- PROVISIONAL; the quotable RONI is NOAA's, above
NOAA CPC official indices (monthly, 3-month means):
RONI +1.97 -> strong El Nino (ASO 2026) ** the official index since Feb 2026 **
ONI +2.46 -> very strong El Nino (ASO 2026) traditional
the +0.49 difference is background tropical warming, which RONI removes
Rainfall seasons (accumulation against the same days of 1991-2020):
WMO_OND_HOTSPOT October–December day 33/92 88.1 mm vs 61.3 normal = 143.6%
GREATER_HORN October–December day 33/92 42.3 mm vs 48.5 normal = 87.1%
HORN_AFRICA October–December day 33/92 70.4 mm vs 57.9 normal = 121.6%
EAST_AFRICA_EQ October–December day 33/92 78.3 mm vs 82.5 normal = 94.9%
SHABELLE_UPSTREAM October–December day 33/92 59.9 mm vs 56.1 normal = 106.8%
JUBBA_UPSTREAM October–December day 33/92 115.5 mm vs 86.0 normal = 134.3%
SOUTHERN_AFRICA November–March day 2/151 1.6 mm vs 2.7 normal = 57.6%
Soil moisture (C3S/ESA CCI COMBINED, 0.25 deg, 2026-09-20, 45 days behind):
AFRICA 0.168 m3/m3 109% of the reference
SAMERICA 0.227 m3/m3 103% of the reference
baseline: mean of the accumulated record, +/-15 days around day 263, 16 days from year 2026 -- a short, moving baseline, not a 1991-2020 climatology
River stage, Amazon (DAHITI altimetry, vs each station's own seasonal cycle):
AMAZON_OBIDOS -1.14 m below seasonal (-1.4 sd) — lower than this 10% of the time in its own record; record low -1.80 m (2023-07-21) [2026-09-24, 41d old, 90 obs]
PURUS_LABREA -0.83 m below seasonal (-0.5 sd) — lower than this 33% of the time in its own record; record low -4.05 m (2023-11-28) [2026-10-23, 12d old, 166 obs]
SOLIMOES_TABATINGA -0.72 m below seasonal (-0.4 sd) — lower than this 32% of the time in its own record; record low -4.28 m (2024-10-29) [2026-10-25, 10d old, 218 obs]
TAPAJOS_SANTAREM -0.43 m below seasonal (-0.9 sd) — lower than this 10% of the time in its own record; record low -1.25 m (2024-06-30) [2026-09-18, 47d old, 100 obs]
MADEIRA_PVELHO -0.20 m below seasonal (-0.1 sd) — lower than this 41% of the time in its own record; record low -3.84 m (2024-01-19) [2026-10-16, 19d old, 230 obs]
NEGRO_MANAUS +0.89 m above seasonal (+0.4 sd) — lower than this 76% of the time in its own record; record low -5.04 m (2024-09-30) [2026-10-21, 14d old, 104 obs]
a departure inside about one standard deviation is ordinary: these stations sit there most of the time. An event is a value well outside that AND sustained across successive revisits, which are 2-4 weeks apart.
El Nino's Amazon signature, integrated over the catchment and lagged by the routing time
River stage, Horn (DAHITI altimetry, vs each station's own seasonal cycle):
SHABELLE_BULOBURTE -2.21 m below seasonal (-1.2 sd) — lower than this 6% of the time in its own record; record low -3.73 m (2025-11-30) [2026-09-13, 52d old, 90 obs]
SHABELLE_BELETWEYNE -1.88 m below seasonal (-1.2 sd) — lower than this 7% of the time in its own record; record low -2.59 m (2025-11-30) [2026-10-04, 31d old, 91 obs]
SHABELLE_JOWHAR -1.84 m below seasonal (-1.4 sd) — lower than this 4% of the time in its own record; record low -3.20 m (2025-11-25) [2026-09-13, 52d old, 52 obs]
JUBBA_BAARDHEERE -1.29 m below seasonal (-1.3 sd) — lower than this 7% of the time in its own record; record low -2.58 m (2019-04-21) [2026-10-08, 27d old, 135 obs]
JUBBA_DOOLOW -0.92 m below seasonal (-1.1 sd) — lower than this 5% of the time in its own record; record low -1.94 m (2022-04-15) [2026-09-21, 44d old, 96 obs]
a departure inside about one standard deviation is ordinary: these stations sit there most of the time. An event is a value well outside that AND sustained across successive revisits, which are 2-4 weeks apart.
context for the Deyr season, NOT a flood trigger: satellite altimetry revisits these reaches every 7-17 days, while a riverine flood warning needs hours. The operational trigger is FAO-SWALIM's FRRIMS in-situ gauge network at these same towns
levels are elevations above the EGM2008 geoid: comparable with each station's own history, not between stations
@AMAZON_OBIDOS -1.9296 -55.5142 AMAZON Amazon Obidos mainstem
@JUBBA_BAARDHEERE 2.0604 42.2429 HORN Jubba Baardheere tributary
@JUBBA_DOOLOW 4.1287 42.2352 HORN Jubba Doolow tributary
@MADEIRA_PVELHO -8.6328 -63.8418 AMAZON Madeira Porto Velho tributary
@NEGRO_MANAUS -3.3040 -60.0674 AMAZON Negro Manaus mainstem
@PURUS_LABREA -7.1471 -64.6423 AMAZON Purus Labrea tributary
@SHABELLE_BELETWEYNE 4.7113 45.2127 HORN Shabelle Belet Weyne tributary
@SHABELLE_BULOBURTE 3.9470 45.5294 HORN Shabelle Bulo Burte tributary
@SHABELLE_JOWHAR 3.0215 45.5064 HORN Shabelle Jowhar tributary
@SOLIMOES_TABATINGA -4.3772 -69.7923 AMAZON Solimoes Tabatinga mainstem
@TAPAJOS_SANTAREM -2.1417 -54.5321 AMAZON Tapajos Santarem mainstem
Agricultural stress (FAO ASIS, 1 km dekadal, ASIS.VHI-D.2026-10-D3):
SHABELLE_UPSTREAM VHI 0.37 mild stress (expects wet, 95% of the box carries data)
JUBBA_UPSTREAM VHI 0.41 no drought stress (expects wet, 98% of the box carries data)
NE_BRAZIL VHI 0.45 no drought stress (expects dry, 57% of the box carries data)
EAST_AFRICA_EQ VHI 0.47 no drought stress (expects wet, 56% of the box carries data)
HORN_AFRICA VHI 0.48 no drought stress (expects wet, 52% of the box carries data)
PERU_COAST VHI 0.49 no drought stress (expects wet, 43% of the box carries data)
WMO_OND_HOTSPOT VHI 0.52 no drought stress (expects wet, 57% of the box carries data)
GREATER_HORN VHI 0.52 no drought stress (expects wet, 62% of the box carries data)
ALTIPLANO VHI 0.55 no drought stress (expects dry, 73% of the box carries data)
SOUTHERN_AFRICA VHI 0.65 no drought stress (expects dry, 77% of the box carries data)
VHI is FAO's composite of vegetation and temperature condition, normalised at each pixel against 1984-present
Vegetation health against its own record (FAO ASIS province means, same dekad every year):
MARITIME_SE_ASIA VHI 0.42 rank 5 of 43 from the driest | -0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
DRY_CORRIDOR VHI 0.47 rank 5 of 43 from the driest | -0.02 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
NE_BRAZIL VHI 0.37 rank 6 of 43 from the driest | -0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
MEKONG VHI 0.45 rank 9 of 43 from the driest | -0.01 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
ALTIPLANO VHI 0.48 rank 20 of 43 from the driest | +0.01 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
CARIBBEAN VHI 0.55 rank 21 of 43 from the driest | +0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
EAST_AFRICA_EQ VHI 0.52 rank 25 of 43 from the driest | +0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
PERU_COAST VHI 0.48 rank 28 of 43 from the driest | +0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
SAHEL_EAST VHI 0.55 rank 28 of 43 from the driest | +0.04 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
HORN_AFRICA VHI 0.54 rank 31 of 43 from the driest | +0.10 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
SAHEL_WEST VHI 0.58 rank 33 of 43 from the driest | +0.05 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
WMO_OND_HOTSPOT VHI 0.55 rank 37 of 43 from the driest | +0.09 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
SOUTH_ASIA VHI 0.62 rank 37 of 43 from the driest | +0.12 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
SOUTHERN_AFRICA_COUNTRIES VHI 0.60 rank 43 of 43 from the driest | +0.11 vs the median of 11 past El Nino years
a rank, not a percentile: ~43 samples support one and not the other
the El Nino comparison is FAO's own method: what previous cycles did over the same ground, not all years together
Tropical cyclones: none active (NHC)
Tropical cyclones worldwide (4 in the IBTrACS active file, every basin):
In-Fa WP peak 128 kt 23.1N 139.3E 2026-10-23 to 2026-11-03 (85 fixes)
Arnab NI peak 119 kt 20.1N 82.1E 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-29 (27 fixes)
Vance EP peak 100 kt 22.6N 107.8W 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-30 (91 fixes)
Murasu NI peak 84 kt 15.5N 80.3E 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-03 (17 fixes)
peak is the highest one-minute wind recorded so far, not the current one; the track carries the whole history
tracks current to 2026-11-03T00:00 (1.5 days old)
Genesis detector, out of sample (2026-08-31 to 2026-10-27, 58 days):
ATL_CARIB POD none yet (fitted 0.57) FAR none yet (fitted 0.67)
ATL_GOM POD 0/1 (fitted 0.56) FAR 2/2 (fitted 0.53)
missed: Isaias
ATL_MDR POD 0/1 (fitted 0.64) FAR none yet (fitted 0.38)
missed: Gonzalo
ENP POD 3/5 (fitted 0.47) FAR 0/1 (fitted 0.09)
missed: Simon, Trudy
WNP POD none yet (fitted 0.37) FAR 2/2 (fitted 0.35)
rates are withheld below 8 events and the counts shown instead: a handful cannot estimate a rate, and the fitted column rests on thirty seasons
scored as the calibration scores -- a genesis counts as caught inside a window or within 2 days of it closing
the record ends where ERA5 does, about six days back, so a storm that formed this week is not scored yet
Tropical cyclones of 2026 so far (IBTrACS, through 2026-11-03):
102 named systems, 45 reached hurricane force (64 kt), 32 major (96 kt); 2 still going
by basin: EP 24, NA 10, NI 3, SI 20, SP 13, WP 32
strongest so far: Champi (WP) at 159 kt
counts are of systems that reached the archive, not of landfalls, and a season is not over until it is over
Nino 3.4 seasonal forecast (C3S multi-model, initialised 2026-10-01, anomaly vs each model's own hindcast climatology):
centre L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 L6
cmcc +3.47 +3.91 +4.19 +4.30 +4.00 +3.49
dwd +3.90 +4.17 +4.54 +4.63 +4.49 +4.16
eccc +3.83 +4.42 +4.41 +4.10 +3.63 +3.07
ecmwf +3.58 +3.99 +4.18 +4.11 +3.83 +3.47
jma +3.54 +3.88 +4.01 +3.97 +3.75 +3.19
meteo_france +3.81 +4.13 +4.20 +3.84 +2.99 +1.96
ncep +3.20 +3.44 +3.37 +2.78 +2.38 +1.90
ukmo +3.43 +3.65 +3.60 +3.40 +2.89 +2.19
--------------------------------------------
multi-model +3.59 +3.95 +4.06 +3.89 +3.49 +2.93
spread (sd) 0.24 0.31 0.40 0.57 0.69 0.82
anomalies are corrected for each model's mean drift but NOT for its variance: seasonal systems over-amplify Nino 3.4 at long lead, so these are not calibrated amplitudes
these are other centres' forecasts, reported not issued; this pipeline's own predictions are graded separately
Standing predictions (issued before the outcome, graded after):
[2026-09-19] discharge_onset: verify after 2027-07-16
[2026-09-19] centroid_migration: verify after 2027-01-17
Sources:
sst ok (2026-10-25 -> 2026-11-03)
olr ok (2026-10-22 -> 2026-11-03)
sla ok (2026-10-26 -> 2026-11-03)
wind ok (2026-10-26 -> 2026-11-03)
d20 ok (2026-10-26 -> 2026-11-03)
iod ok (2026-10-26 -> 2026-11-03)
wwv_pmel ok
tc_windows ATL_CARIB=closed, ATL_GOM=closed, ATL_MDR=closed, ENP=closed, WNP=closed
official RONI +1.97 (ASO 2026), ONI +2.46, gap +0.49
roni_proxy rel +1.46, scaled +2.04 (scale 1.40 on 14 mo)
impacts ok (2026-11-02, 7 of 10 regions inside their season)
soil_moisture ok (2026-09-20, 45d behind, 20 days cached)
seasonal ok (2026-10-01, 8 centres)
sst_map ok (2026-11-02, 52 frames)
monsoon ok (WEST_AFRICA 2026-07-15, SOUTH_ASIA 2026-06-21)
genesis_score ok (ATL_GOM 0/1, ATL_MDR 0/1, ENP 3/5)
storms_global ok (4 worldwide)
season_tracks ok (102 storms in 2026, 2 active)
storms ok (0 active, 0 features)
asis ok (ASIS.VHI-D.2026-10-D3, 10 regions)
rivers ok (11 of 11 stations)
wwv_check agree (r=+0.99, offset 24.37)
consistency ok (14 checks)
interpretation ok
forecast 0 issued, 0 graded
This is the same text the morning mail carries, unabridged, so any number on the monitor can be checked against the run that produced it. Back to the monitor
bulletin 2026-11-04T11:39:10+00:00