Forecast record

Every prediction this pipeline has issued, with the condition that would refute it written down before the outcome was known. Wrong calls stay on the page — a scorecard showing only successes would be worth less than none. Back to the monitor.

Scorecard

Nothing graded yet. 2 predictions standing; the first is due 2027-01-17. A record this short proves nothing, which is the point of dating it.

Predictions

open centroid_migration

issued 2026-09-19 · data through 2026-09-05 · grades after 2027-01-17 · commit 60e8ab2a0cf9

The heating centroid is at 210 E, east of a Modoki position but short of the 230-250 E canonical eastern-Pacific one, while coastal OLR (270-280 E) is -1.6 W/m2 -- near normal over water at extreme SST. The ocean is in an EP configuration the atmosphere has not yet joined. If the centroid passes 230 E, coastal convection should follow: OLR at 270-280 E below -15 W/m2 within 30 days of that crossing.

Falsified if: the centroid passes 230 E and coastal OLR (270-280 E) does not fall below -15 W/m2 within the following 30 days

open discharge_onset

issued 2026-09-19 · data through 2026-09-05 · grades after 2027-07-16 · commit 60e8ab2a0cf9

Warm water volume has turned: 30-day slope -0.096 against +0.075 over 60 days, with Nino 3.4 (90-day mean) at +2.18 C. In the recharge oscillator, discharge onset at a mature warm peak leads the surface peak by two to three seasons, so Nino 3.4 should peak on or before 2027-04-17 and be below its value at issue by 300 days.

Falsified if: Nino 3.4 (90-day mean) is still rising after the peak_by date, or exceeds its value at issue on the verification date, or the 30-day WWV slope returns above +0.05 for 60 consecutive days before peak_by