Moniteur du Pacifique équatorial
État ENSO quotidien, volume d’eau chaude, dipôle de l’océan Indien et fenêtres de cyclogenèse atlantique — chaque valeur accompagnée de sa période de référence, et un historique public des prévisions (2 en cours).
observé le 2026-09-18
bulletin 2026-09-20 16:27 UTC
Surface
- Niño 3
- +3.81°C
- Niño 4
- +1.02°C
- Niño 1+2
- +4.82°C
- Niño 3 − Niño 4
- +2.79°C
- Moyenne glissante sur 90 jours
- +2.37°C
Un indicateur approchant l’ONI, pas l’ONI.
OISST anomalies against the PSL 1991–2020 day-of-year climatology
nino34_run is a 90-day running mean — a proxy for the ONI, not the ONI. The official index is a 3-month running mean of monthly ERSSTv5 anomalies.
Subsurface
- Volume d’eau chaude
- +27.36×10¹⁴ m³
- Anomalie de volume
- +1.46×10¹⁴ m³
- Profondeur moyenne de l’isotherme 20 °C
- +142.99m
- Basculement zonal (ouest − est)
- +2.98×10¹⁴ m³
anomalies against the mean of the accumulated record
A short, moving baseline: it shifts as the record grows, so the same day can carry a different anomaly after a longer backfill. For quotable numbers use PMEL's, in wwv_pmel_monthly.
Dipôle de l’océan Indien
- DMI
- +0.97K
- Moyenne sur 30 jours
- +0.46K
- Boîte ouest
- +1.16K
- Boîte est
- +0.19K
dmi_run is a 30-day running mean — a daily proxy for a monthly published index. For anything quoted use BoM's or NOAA's.
Fenêtres de cyclogenèse 1 ouverte
| Boîte | IV | 7 jours | Cisaillement | TSM | État |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL_CARIB | 0.239 | +0.084 | 21.7 | 29.3 °C | fermée rising |
| ATL_GOM | 0.045 | -0.024 | 8.7 | 30.8 °C | ouverte falling |
| ATL_MDR | 0.175 | +0.048 | 17.3 | 28.6 °C | fermée rising |
| ENP | 0.069 | +0.022 | 11.7 | 30.2 °C | fermée rising |
Atlantic genesis windows (ERA5 2026-09-14, 7-day means, about 6 days behind today)
opens below VI 0.060, closes above 0.080; genesis very unlikely above about 0.1
shear anomaly baseline: 1991-2020 (20+ years/day)
Figures
Indices Niño
Portrait de phase de l’oscillateur de recharge
Diagramme de Hovmöller équatorial
Coupe de température de subsurface
Volume d’eau chaude comparé à PMEL
Fenêtres de cyclogenèse atlantique
Bulletin du jour
# ENSO daily bulletin - 2026-09-20 16:27 UTC
Latest observation: 2026-09-18
Nino 3.4 +2.95 C -> very strong El Nino
Nino 3 +3.81 C
Nino 4 +1.02 C
Nino 1+2 +4.82 C
Nino 3 - Nino 4 +2.79 C (east-Pacific leaning)
90-day running mean +2.37 C (ONI proxy)
change over 1 week: -0.00 C
change over 1 month: +0.38 C
Indian Ocean Dipole (DMI, 2026-09-18):
DMI +0.97 K -> positive IOD 30-day mean +0.46 K
west box +1.16 K, east box +0.19 K
a daily proxy for a monthly published index; quote BoM or NOAA
Subsurface (recharge state):
mean 20 C isotherm depth 143.0 m (west 153.0, east 132.2)
warm water volume 27.36 x1e14 m3 (anom +1.46, short baseline)
thermocline contrast 20.8 m (west - east; climatology 80-100 m)
vs record mean -1.9 m (short baseline)
volume tilt (west - east) +2.98 x1e14 m3 (+1.71 of it is box-width geometry, leaving +1.27)
Atlantic genesis windows (ERA5 2026-09-14, 7-day means, about 6 days behind today):
box VI 7d shear SST state
ATL_CARIB 0.239 +0.084 21.7 29.3C closed (rising)
ATL_GOM 0.045 -0.024 8.7 30.8C OPEN (falling)
ATL_MDR 0.175 +0.048 17.3 28.6C closed (rising)
ENP 0.069 +0.022 11.7 30.2C closed (rising)
opens below VI 0.060, closes above 0.080; genesis very unlikely above about 0.1
shear anomaly baseline: 1991-2020 (20+ years/day)
Standing predictions (issued before the outcome, graded after):
[2026-09-19] discharge_onset: verify after 2027-07-16
[2026-09-19] centroid_migration: verify after 2027-01-17
Sources:
olr ok (2026-09-06 -> 2026-09-19)
wwv_check agree (r=+0.99, offset 24.46)
consistency ok (4 checks)
forecast 0 issued, 0 graded